2020 ABL Division Previews - NL East

[aaron_commissioner]

New York Mets (2019: 99-62, 1st NL East, Eliminated in NLCS)
2019 in review: It all came together for the Mets in 2019. NL MVP and Cy Young Noah Syndergaard pitched career best numbers. Even forgotten swingman Miguel Gonzalez pitched outstanding in his role. Ultimately, the fine pitching and defense of the Mets carried them to the NLCS, where their good but not explosive bats let them down against Los Angeles.
Offseason summary: The Mets look ready to build upon their success in 2019, as they took small moves and have largely the same look. Josh Edgin adds another left handed arm to a strong bullpen, even with the loss of Brandon Kintzler.
What’s the best that could happen? With the pitching this team has, a World Series win is definitely in the picture.
What’s the worst that could happen? 2018 shows that this team is capable of struggling in some areas. I think this team is better than two years ago, but an early playoff exit would be disappointing for the Mets.
Player spotlight:
SP Jacob DeGrom: Noah Syndergaard may get all the attention (and rightly so), but DeGrom is the best #2 pitcher in the NL. He would be an ace on nearly any other team, and has modeled consistency and great work ethic during his past few years in New York.
SS Luis Guillorme: Although top prospect Amed Rosario has been given every chance to win the shortstop job, Guillorme seems to finally have entrenched himself in the role going forward. The light-hitting lefty has stellar defense, and showed signs of improvement with the bat in 2019.
Questions:
1) Syndergaard, Harvey, DeGrom, and Matz seemed entrenched in your bullpen, but Matz is coming off of injury. How does the 5th spot shake out this year, considering Wacha’s recent struggles?
2) You mentioned last year that impact hitting might be holding you back against powerhouses such as Los Angeles. Do you feel like you did enough to add in this area, or are you expecting success to come from another area?

Washington Nationals (2019: 75-87, 4th NL East)
2019 in review: Everything seemed to go wrong for the Nationals in 2019. Poor performance, financial troubles, and injuries plagued the team. Bryce Harper (8.6 WAR) was his usual MVP-like self, but the team ended up with a disappointing 4th place finish in the NL East.
Offseason summary: In one of the biggest trades of the offseason, Washington sent Strasburg to Boston for a huge haul that involved Hunter Strikland, Lucas Giolito, and Kevin Maitan. Other than this trade, Shelby Miller was recently signed to a two year, $16MM contract. Clearly, the Nats are not content after their poor 2019 and want to shake some things up.
What’s the best that could happen? Washington is 2 years removed from a division win. With Bryce Harper and other stars in tow, the division is not completely locked up by New York. Look for the Nats to push for a playoff spot this year.
What’s the worst that could happen? Another repeat of last year, except everyone is one year older. Injuries did affect Washington’s record in 2019; however, aging may have a bigger impact in 2020.
Player spotlight:
CL Sean Doolittle: One of the most dominant relievers in 2019, Doolittle nearly had a 20 K/BB ratio! However, most of the rest of the bullpen struggled in Washington. If others can pick up the pace, the only question is how much regression to the mean will affect Doolittle.
SS Kevin Maitan: One of my favorite infield prospects, Maitan was traded twice this offseason for big-time players. If his bat continues to develop, his elite defense should give him a spot anywhere in the infield in the future.
Questions:
1) You struggled in 2019. What direction do you want to take this team going forward, and what are your goals entering and throughout 2020?
2) Bryce Harper is an immense talent, and is rightly being paid for his production. How valuable is he to your team? Is he in your future plans, or do you think he will leave for a huge haul?

Atlanta Braves (2019: 76-86, 3rd NL East)
2019 in review: The Braves struggled to get things going offensively in 2019. They had a sluggish start and were held back by lackluster performances from Greg Bird and a down year from Jurickson Profar. Ultimately, there were able to piece together one of the better pitching and defensive units in the NL, and finished a respectable 3rd in their division.
Offseason summary: Altanta made a huge deal with Boston, sending Julio Teheran and Kevin Maitan for Mookie Betts and Eduardo Rodriguez. Other than that, small steps were taken to get this team more in position to contend. One notable loss is Adrian Beltre, who did not produce in 2019, but his leadership may be missed.
What’s the best that could happen? The Braves are a difficult team to figure out. With more major league talent on board, they could see more success in 2020. Is it enough for a playoff spot? Perhaps.
What’s the worst that could happen? I think this team’s floor is pretty high. They have consistently produced respectable (near .500) records. Worst case, in my mind, would be a big injury and a 90-loss season.
Player spotlight:
SP Shane Baz: One of my personal favorite SP prospects, Baz has tantalizing ratings and, while is ERA has not reflected positive results, his peripherals are outstanding. Good things could be in store for this guy’s future.
1B Greg Bird: Bird had an all-star 2018, but really fell back to Earth in 2019. Probably no single batter will impact the success of the Braves in 2020 more than Bird. If he can rebound and get back to positive ways.
Questions:
1) You made a big acquisition in Mookie Betts this offseason. What went into this trade and how do you see Betts impacting your team in the future?
2) You consistently mentioned a need for starting pitchers in your major league organization. How do you think you have approached this this offseason and how will you continue to approach this in the near future?

Miami Marlins (2019: 65-97, 5th NL East)
2019 in review: The Marlins were essentially without a GM for the first half of the season, and it cost them dearly. They could not recover after a personnel change halfway through the season, and stumbled to a last place finish in the division. That being said, 21-year old Andres Gimenez made his presence known, leading the team in WAR and establishing himself as one of the best young shortstops in the league.
Offseason summary: Miami was very busy this offseason in attempts to retool their organization. They acquired major league depth (Tommy Joseph, Corey Taylor) and big-time specs (Matthew Thompson). Wei-Yin Chen departed, which should open up a rotation spot and some budget room. Desmond Lindsay, however, will likely be the biggest loss.
What’s the best that could happen? Other than the Mets, the NL East is pretty wide open. Their youth would need to make some huge steps, but if they do, a .500 record is not out of the question in 2020.
What’s the worst that could happen? Like many rebuilding teams, a bad record isn’t the worst thing that could happen. Long-term, the worst thing that could happen is a lack of development while current stars get more expensive.
Player spotlight:
RP Kyle Barraclough: Barraclough may not be in Miami for much longer, but he definitely seems like an enigma. He is incredible and limiting home runs and striking people out, but his WAR has mysteriously underwhelmed in the past few years.
SS Andres Gimenez: Gimenez was the player spotlighted last year, and he has done nothing but boost his stock. Gimenez is one of many young shortstops popping up around the league, and he may be the best. He possesses otherworldly speed and defensive skills.
Questions:
1) Miami was a neglected organization under the last leadership regime. In your first full season in charge, what are your priorities? What veterans can you see sticking around?
2) Explain the decision to trade young center fielder Desmond Lindsay. It seems as though you were targeting minor league starter depth?

Philadelphia Phillies (2019: 78-84, 2nd NL East)
2019 in review: The Phillies fielded one of the best pitching/defense combinations in the NL last year. It led to them being in the wild card race right up until the final weeks in September. Considering big signings in Wilson Ramos and Brian Dozier did not work out for the team, they greatly exceeded expectations in 2019.
Offseason summary: Philadelphia was not satisfied with a decent showing in 2019. They started off the offseason with a big trade for Mike Zunino, signed more catching depth in Salvador Perez, and made one of the bigger free agent signings in Jose Altuve.
What’s the best that could happen? The Phillies were really close to a wild card appearance in 2019. If the defense continues to shine, the team could certainly improve in 2020 and reach the postseason.
What’s the worst that could happen? From my personal experience, I know that the Mariners rode a stellar defense and pitching performance to a surprising record in 2018. The following year, they fell 10 games as these units regressed towards the mean. My fear is that the same could happen to this Phillies team. 68 wins is possible, less than that is worst-case scenario.
Player spotlight:
SP Alec Asher: I am personally very confused by Asher’s results in 2019. His ratings are admittedly subpar, but he produced an All-Star quality season.
CF Mickey Moniak: Moniak is one of the best young outfielders in the league, and his first taste of the majors was positive. He is currently slated to lead-off for the Phillies, and will be given every chance to shine in 2020.
Questions:
1) Walk us through the acquisition of Jose Altuve. There were some mixed opinions (however, mostly positive) around the league. How long do you see him with your team, and what role will he play?
2) You’re rotation really shined in 2019, but their ratings are less than stellar. What are your feelings about them in 2020, and where do you see areas for improvement?

[jyd98]

1) Honestly not 100% sure why I signed him. I'm happy to have him but I didn't put much thought in to it. I tried Odubal Herrera at 2nd last season and it did not go very well. I figure if I can use Altuve for 2 years and hope that he voids his contract after 2 years.

2) I know the rotation last year had to be luck. I'm hoping it can still be decent with Velasquez back and hopefully Nola for a full season. Sixto Sanchez will start the year with the team and will HOPEFULLY improve on last years horrible numbers. Asher will be in the rotation and hopefully continue to somehow do good. The rest of the rotation will depend on their performances in spring training.

[chrismiami]

1) Miami was a neglected organization under the last leadership regime. In your first full season in charge, what are your priorities? What veterans can you see sticking around?

There's not much to do right now except patiently rebuild (and pray that Loria dies or opens up his damn wallet). With any luck we'll have a short window a few years down the line where we can really contend. Moving Chen buys us some financial wiggle room, so the plan's going to be to draft big time talent while buying reasonable upgrades in the many places where we need them.

As far as vets, we just extended Realmuto to a pretty reasonable long term deal. There are guys in the bullpen I'd like to sign to long-term deals as well. But honestly, any or all of these guys will stay or go depending on how high a price they can fetch on the open market. At best, these guys would have one or two years left in their prime by the time our future stars come up and find their stride.

2) Explain the decision to trade young center fielder Desmond Lindsay. It seems as though you were targeting minor league starter depth?

I figure if we can develop a good core of starting pitching, we can buy some of the bats they need to support them when they come of age. But not the other way around. Lindsay was tough to part with, but realistically the presence or absence of a player like that isn't going to make or break us. We need to take every shot we can get to pick up guys who might develop into the kinds of starters this team will never be able to afford on the open market.

[johnw- ATL]

1) You made a big acquisition in Mookie Betts this offseason. What went into this trade and how do you see Betts impacting your team in the future?

I wasn't gonna trade Kevin Maitan without picking up a impact major league player in their prime.  It just wasn't going to happen.  I wanted pitching, and while i came close a few times, it just wasn't to be.  I see Mookie Betts as an impact player, young enough to fit in with the impact players on the roster, and someone who can hit in the middle of the order.  He has a all-around skill set, and i expect big things from him. 

2) You consistently mentioned a need for starting pitchers in your major league organization. How do you think you have approached this this offseason and how will you continue to approach this in the near future?

I've had 3 super pitching prospects get crushed by injuries and OOTP.  Kumar Rocker, Kolby Allard and Roniel Raudes all at one point were top top pitching prospects, who aren't anymore.  It's a crushing thing for a franchise trying to rebuild to deal with it.  The only real way to deal with it is depth.  Keep amassing as much pitching depth as possible.  I will continue to attempt to prioritize acquiring as much pitching talent as i can, even if im unsuccessful like I've been so far.

[nationalsgm]

1) You struggled in 2019. What direction do you want to take this team going forward, and what are your goals entering and throughout 2020?

Injuries really derailed this team last season. We felt like we were just as good as the Mets. Injuries to the pitching staff and later Bryce Harper just put this team too far back. We made a huge trade to rid ourselves of an injury plagued pitcher. Although not as good, we felt that we could get more out of who we received from Boston. Our goals will pretty much be laid out on what kind of trades we make. As of now we'll see how the start of the season goes for the team and the real direction we'll take.

2) Bryce Harper is an immense talent, and is rightly being paid for his production. How valuable is he to your team? Is he in your future plans, or do you think he will leave for a huge haul?

Bryce Harper isn't just the heart and soul of the Washington Nationals but undoubtedly the best player in the league. Problem with trading him at this point is, he's worth more than most are willing to pay right now. None of the big farm teams are ready for a guy like him. So we'll wait and see right now who's ready to go the extra mile and quite frankly, a team that's not going to be so scared.

[Deleted]

Great work with these articles, Aaron!

Questions:
1) Syndergaard, Harvey, DeGrom, and Matz seemed entrenched in your bullpen, but Matz is coming off of injury. How does the 5th spot shake out this year, considering Wacha’s recent struggles?
*Considering we are talking about our 5th rotation spot, I really do have it good with pitching so you won't find me complaining about my issues.

Matz won't be off the DL until at least the 3rd week of April. I am aware there is debate in how much a rehab stint works/doesn't work for a player in OOTP, and i don't have definitive data to support my position, but Matz will definitely be going for a rehab stint. I would rather err on the side of caution and let him get back into game shape in the minors where it won't harm us. It is an unknown when a player returns from a long term injury (12+ months) and throwing him into our rotation can be risky, both from a wins/losses perspective, as well as how he will respond once he is back on the mound. If i can get 4 or 5 starts from him on a rehab assignment, i will have a sample of data (albeit small) to work with. When he does come back, he is our 4th starter. Possibly 3rd, depending on how well Harvey ages.

Wacha is an enigma. He had a VERY good start to his Mets career, but faded down the stretch. he gives up alot of hits, yet his walk to strikeout rate is good. He's going to give up 20-25 home runs a year, but with a low walk rate it won't hurt him too much. He just has a tendency of giving up big numbers from time to time. No real explanations exist!

All that to say I have 2 in-house options for the 5th starter spot. Merandy Gonzalez is a 24 year old Dominican RHP who is 93-95mph on the radar gun, a fastball/slider/changeup guy who has put up impressive ERA+ numbers at each minor league stop. Since 2016, his lowest ERA+ is 130. Will he do it at the ABL level? I'm hopeful he can nail down the 5th spot in ST to keep us in games. The other candidate is Nabil Crismatt, a 25 year old Columbian RHP who struggled in a 4 start audition in 2019. Crismatt is 90-92 on the gun, with a fastball/curveball and a deadly changeup. Crismatt has also demonstrated he can get the job done in the minors, but has yet to show enough to stick long-term. It will be a nice Spring Training battle to watch develop.

2) You mentioned last year that impact hitting might be holding you back against powerhouses such as Los Angeles. Do you feel like you did enough to add in this area, or are you expecting success to come from another area?

Budgets being what they are, we simply don't have enough finances to field an All-Star rotation, bullpen and every day lineup. So most of my focus is on pitching, and then build around the arms with an emphasis on defense and contact/getting on-base lineup. We still have too much swing and miss, we still need to get on base more and we don't make enough contact up and down the lineup. That isn't necessarily a pessimistic view of my team, it is an honest view of our weaknesses. We do have power and we will hit lots of extra-base hits to augment some of our short-comings. I'm also adding more speed to our lineup, and our defense will be a bit better in the OF. Cespedes, in his last year before he departs for FA, will DH this year, splitting time with Duda in a platoon. The OF defense in sliding Nimmo over to left, Pillar in CF and Judge in RF is now stronger because they are playing their natural positions. If every other team improved over the winter, and we have essentially stayed the same, I still like our chances to win the division and go deep into the playoffs. But it's baseball, so i might just end up last!  lol