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Post by aaron_commissioner on Dec 27, 2017 22:50:45 GMT -8
Tableau WAR ChartsThe above link is a compilation of some of my research this evening. Basically, there are three charts that show the relationship between WAR and Wins from every team, 2017-2019. To toggle between the three sheets, look to the "Metadata" section at the bottom right corner. Some information to help you understand the chart: Trend lines are included. These are important for a few reasons: - Teams above the trend lines outperformed their WAR totals (and might be considered "lucky"). Teams under the line, similarly, could be considered "unlucky" - The trend lines also show two important numbers: - R-squared: correlation coefficient. The closer this number is to 0, the more likely these two pieces of data have no relation. The closer to 1 or -1, the more likely that there is a connection. - Wins, compared to batting and pitching WAR, individually yields a R-squared value of around 0.80. This shows a strong relationship. - When comparing Wins to Combined WAR, the R-squared value is almost 0.93. This is a very strong relationship. - Of course, it is no surprise that Wins and WAR are related. - P-value: This is a statistical term to determine how much the data as a whole actually means something and can be trusted. Anything less than 0.1 is usually acceptable.
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Post by aaron_commissioner on Dec 30, 2017 13:47:08 GMT -8
From the charts above, I've included average benchmarks for WAR needed to achieve a certain number of wins. You will notice the batWAR and pitchWAR numbers do not perfectly add up to the COMBINED number; this is because I used each chart separately, so the data won't align perfectly.
81 wins: 19.03 batWAR, 15.01 pitchWAR, 34.01 COMBINED 86 wins: 22.41 batWAR, 18.04 pitchWAR, 39.57 COMBINED 90 wins: 25.11 batWAR, 20.46 pitchWAR, 44.01 COMBINED 95 wins: 28.49 batWAR, 23.49 pitchWAR, 49.57 COMBINED 100 wins: 31.87 batWAR, 26.52 pitchWAR, 55.12 COMBINED
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