|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Dec 19, 2017 15:17:06 GMT -8
The Mariners may not be the best team, but they could be one of the most exciting to follow. Keep track of offseason signings, transactions, and yes, trades by the team in this thread.
Season in review: 2019
Ultimately, the 2019 season will go down as a disappointment. The M's continually improved upon the start of the season, and by the end of July were within single digits of division-leading Texas. However, they went 20-34 (.370) the rest of the way and ended the season with less than 80 wins.
What went wrong?
Offense: The hitting was one of the league's worst in the final two months. Robinson Cano sputtered, Jake Lamb got injured, and Luis Basabe cooled down like hot metal dropped in water. The starting pitching was a mess all year, but only the offense seemed drastically worse in August/September.
Luck: The M's ended with a positive run-differential, yet were 4 games under .500. Despite a similar team OPS vs. LHP and vs. RHP, the team went an incredible 9-32 (.220!) vs. left-handed starters.
Transactions: With so many trades, it is natural to think that one (or more) of these moves doomed, especially since the turn for the worse occurred around the trade deadline. Here's a look at some trades and how they could have affected the team:
- Acquisition of Colin McHugh for two small prospects: POSITIVE. McHugh was terrible in Houston the first half of the year, but was able to come to Seattle and help stabilizea sinking ship that was our rotation. He was extended and will make $20M in 2020 to provide depth in the M's rotation.
- Brandon Belt and Tyler Smith traded for Brian Dozier and Howie Kendrick: PUSH. Belt was a star for Seattle, but moving him allowed Jake Lamb to get more playing time. Dozier filled in at 2B and provided the best production from the position for the M's in 2019.
- Anthony Alford and Jose Torres for Liam Hendricks and Seth Smith: NEGATIVE This classic "win-now" move was an utter failure. Alford provided value as a 4th outfielder in Seattle. Torres was valuable bullpen depth. While Hendricks ended up doing pretty well in Seattle, both he and Smith were injured upon their arrival, and Smith did not boost the offense at all (0.2 WAR). Both will end up leaving after a couple months.
- Paul Fry traded for prospects: NEGATIVE. I thought I could replace Fry with other left-handers, but the loss of both him and Torres were not aptly replaced by Pazos, Perez, and Aiken. Long-term, I like the prospects I got in return, but should have perhaps waited until the offseason to move him.
- Giancarlo Stanton traded for Carlos Santana, prospects, and future cash: PUSH. Ultimately, I feel that this trade will have great positive impacts for the Mariners long-term. However, it cannot be denied that we missed Stanton's power in the lineup. This is not a trade I regret, but one that probably impacted our offense in 2019.
- Acquisition of Yasiel Puig: NEGATIVE. This may be the biggest reason for a downturn in performance. Puig had a negative impact on the clubhouse, and did not produce.
Overall, 2019 is a good reminder that sometimes shit happens, the ball doesn't bounce your way, and it is possible to trade your way out of contention. We will use this year as a learning opportunity and come back stronger in 2020. On to the offseason!
|
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Dec 23, 2017 14:48:29 GMT -8
Initial Team Needs/Goals:
Entering the 2019-2020 offseason, these are some of the top priorities for the Seattle Mariners:
1) Acquire payroll flexibility. Currently, we are projected to be $12M over budget, that that includes a projected $12M increase in our budget from 2019. Robinson Cano ($24M) retiring would go a long way toward providing some much needed room. Cutting Carlos Santana ($24M) could save about $6M, but I would prefer to trade him. Mike Zunino ($10M), Brian Dozier ($18M) are also candidates to be traded.
2) Improve power and contact. This is incredibly difficult to do with one player, as only truly elite players are above average in both categories. I hope to add a 30-HR hitter in the outfield, and would love to improve batting average at the catcher position. Overall, however, I will be looking for improvements to either area (or both) anywhere around the diamond.
3) Improve starting pitching depth. In 2019, 15 pitchers started for the Mariners. Incredibly, none of these pitchers were forced out of action due to injury. Simply put, we lacked a lot of depth at the position. Eddie Gamboa seemed to symbolize the challenges of the rotation last year; he was a headache to send in, showed no consistency, but ultimately produced ERA and HR/9 numbers we would expect from a #5 starter. In 2020, Gamboa may end up starting the season as our 5th starter, but ultimately I would like to have TWO more arms that could be considered superior to the knuckleballer.
4) Acquire a "Captain". While this is much less a priority, I feel that the youth on my roster could use a strong leader personality. It is possible that current leaders Dozier, Zunino, Turner, Ciuffo, Kendrick, and Cano will all not be on the roster to begin 2020, so we need a strong personality to come in and keep the team in order.
Preferably, I would like to achieve all of these goals without giving up young, high-potential talent. That may not be feasible, but I plan on pursuing a more patient, disciplined approach to meeting needs via trade. The offseason is a long period of time. Hopefully by the end of it, my team will be ready to compete in 2020.
|
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Dec 27, 2017 13:18:29 GMT -8
Offseason tasks:
New Budget for 2020: $208,000,000
Given that my "expected" 2020 budget would be $220,000,000, this was a big blow to my offseason plans. My desire to acquire a big name and really go for it in 2020 may not happen. This news forces me to hang on a little more tightly to my young talent, as I may have to try to win with what I have and wait for other contracts to expire.
Team option for Yangervis Solarte ($8M, $0 buyout): DECLINED
Solarte has posted 5.5 WAR over the last two years, and has been surprisingly solid in his one season in Seattle. However, his lack of a true position and the need for me to shed salary are factors that led to this decision. I hope I can re-sign him at a lower rate.
Mike Zunino TRADED to Philadelphia for Tyler Smith and 6th round pick
This move was entirely based on finances. Zunino was estimated to need $10M through arbitration in 2020, and a .691 OPS was not going to cut it at that price, even from the catcher position. I have other cheaper defensive options and Tyler Stephenson waiting in AAA, so I may try and make do or find a better hitter. In addition, Smith provides the backup infielder that I need this offseason at a very reasonable cost.
4th round pick TRADED to Miami for Marcell Ozuna and a 6th round pick
This move was a low-risk one in order to get some time with Ozuna to try and work out an extension. If it does pan out, Ozuna could provide better depth with his bat in the outfield position. If it doesn't, I simply moved back 2 rounds in the mid-rounds of the draft. These are the kinds of moves I will have to make in order to manage my new budget.
Yangervis Solarte EXTENDED (3 years, $20M)
Don't look too much into the money; with the team options in this contract, this was simply a way of pushing Solarte's guaranteed $8M into 2021. He will make $4M in 2020, which is much more palatable for a player of his caliber.
|
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Dec 30, 2017 14:33:01 GMT -8
Adam Liberatore TRADED to Toronto for Brandon Finnegan
Shortly before the sim, Toronto came to me with this offer, and fit my needs too well to pass up. Finnegan will slide into my #5 rotation spot for now with hopes that he can improve upon his struggles in Toronto. Still only 26 years old, he is significantly younger than Liberatore for almost the same salary and years of control. At best, Finnegan provides another rotation arm that is desperately needed, at a low cost. At worst, he replaces Liberatore as a left-handed specialist in the bullpen, or is optioned (he still has an option year left).
Stuart Turner TRADED to Cincinnati for Reese McGuire
I've had my eye on McGuire for a while, as I've been looking for a mediocre catcher who can at least hit for AVG. McGuire fits the bill perfectly. He doesn't play defense as well, but is younger and has proven he can hit; his bat may be an improvement over even Mike Zunino. Also, he grew up around the Seattle area, which could boost fan interest.
Luis Castillo and Carlos Santana TRADED to Texas for Martin Perez
After many small deals, this is probably my biggest trade to date this offseason. I've always been a huge fan of Perez's home run suppression skills, and when he went on the block I quickly showed interest. I really wrestled with the prospect of trading Castillo--he is affordable and potentially elite, and considering my financial situation, I could have been best suited to hang on to my young, cheap assets. That being said, I gain about $10M in budget room through this deal, and trade for what is likely to be the better 2020 pitcher. Welcome to Seattle, Martin!
Jorge Pereda TRADED to Los Angeles for Rob Segedin, Trevor Oaks, and Kyle Farmer.
This was purely a salary dump trade, as the $15.5M due to Pereda in the next two years was too much for Seattle. Pereda has the rare "sparkplug" personality and can play nearly every position defensively, so he is useful. I'm glad he is able to find a home on the big-budget Dodgers. As for the return, every name is unlikely to make the Mariners team. I'm happy to take on approximately $1.6M between these three to part with Pereda's salary.
|
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Jan 1, 2018 21:53:04 GMT -8
Brian Dozier TRADED to Chicago (NL) for Stephen Piscotty
Picks were also swapped in this deal, but this will end up to be a salary swap while getting a right-handed bat who can play all three OF positions. In all, I get a younger player who can play the OF and shave off about $10M.
Willy Amador (HOU), Jonathan Hernandez (TEX), Andrew Heaney (AZ), and Tyler Mahle (CIN) acquired via Rule 5 Draft
My goal for the Rule 5 Draft was to acquire a long reliever/spot starter for my club in 2020. Somehow, I got four. After evaluating the four players, Hernandez was immediately returned to Texas. Heaney may be useful to me as a left-handed specialist, but it certainly on the bubble. I am most excited about Amador's ratings and Mahle's recent velocity boost. Both of these two will remain with the team through Spring Training. If both excel, they could find themselves on the major league squad to start the season. However, I feel it is likely that only one will remain with the team all year. The early favorite is probably Mahle.
Collin McHugh TRADED to San Francisco for Zack Wheeler and Joc Pederson
By shedding salary so quickly to start the offseason, I am able to take on approximately $7M in this deal. In return, I am most excited about getting the bat of Pederson back in Seattle's lineup. He was briefly in the Mariners organization, but spent his time in AAA Tacoma. This time, he'll be in the big leagues for good. Also coming to Seattle is Wheeler, a younger and perhaps more talented pitcher than McHugh. However, injuries (19 since 2017) and a large contract (through 2024) make him a very risky acquisition. The hope is that I have some added depth to deal with an injury and I will not count on Wheeler being healthy for the entire season.
|
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Jan 11, 2018 16:17:18 GMT -8
Eric O'Flaherty SIGNED as free agent to 1 year, $1.4MM contract.
O'Flaherty was not my first option by any means, but I was looking to spend no more than $3MM on a lefty specialist, and Sammy Solis (WAS) and Justin Wilson (CHC) were signed earlier and for more money. Considering I didn't have to spend much, I think O'Flaherty will make a good value buy for my low-priced bullpen of misfits.
Anthony Rendon (plus 2nd round pick) TRADED to Vancouver for Evan Longoria
This is a trade that has the potential to help me both short-term and long-term. However, it is not without its risks. I think Longoria is a better all-around player than Rendon, he is a better leader (captain) and much more popular. Furthermore, he is signed for less years and I will clear future salary room by moving Rendon. However, Longoria is 34 years old and already has a strikeout tendency; he could potentially age quicker than anticipated and it is no solid bet he will post a better statistical 2020 than Rendon. If this happens, we could be in trouble, as we do not have a solid replacement at 3B in the minors.
|
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Jan 12, 2018 8:18:23 GMT -8
For the past 5 years, the Mariners have "experimented" with an alternate home Sunday uniform. It's popularity has soared. With the arrival of Spring Training also comes the arrival of new uniforms. The "S" will become the team's main logo, while the "compass" will return to a secondary one. The colors reflect the team's history of yellow/blue. We're excited for a new look and hope it produces even better results! ![]() |
|
|
|
Post by aaron_commissioner on Jan 15, 2018 11:15:33 GMT -8
Opening Day roster:Opening Day lineup:
2B Raul Mondesi SS J.P. Crawford DH Yangervis Solarte 3B Evan Longoria RF Stephen Piscotty 1B Jake Lamb LF Luis Basabe C Reese McGuire CF Daz Cameron Backup infielders:
C Nick Ciuffo INF Tyler Smith DH Robinson Cano Backup outfielders:
LF Joc Pederson Rotation:1. Madison Bumgarner 2. Martin Perez 3. Mike Leake 4. Zach Wheeler 5. Eddie Gamboa Bullpen:
MR/CL Michael Mariot MR/SU Cory Rasmus MR/ST Jake Petricka MR Tyler Mahle MR/LS Eric O'Flaherty MR/LS James Pazos MR/LR Wily Amador Notes:- Opening Day lineup reflects matchup vs. Sean Manaea, a lefty.
- Expect Pederson, Piscotty, Basabe, and Cameron to share time in the outfield relatively equally.
- Cano will get some time against pitchers who struggle against lefties, but overall will be backup DH for the team. His leadership is appreciated. His contract is not.
- If an injury occurs of Ciuffo falls completely flat, look for catching prospect Tyler Stephenson to make a splash. We love McGuire as our catcher, but Stephenson may find time in the outfield or as a backup catcher vs. LHP.
- Eddie Gamboa won 5th rotation spot due to a stellar Spring. Brady Aiken is expected to spend the entire year in AAA. Brandon Finnegan will start the year in AAA but will likely see a lot of time in the majors.
- The bullpen is completely a bunch of misfits. No player will take any single role; rather, the hot hand will be provided more important roles. Tyler Mahle and James Pazos were the last two to make the team. Mitchell White, Matt Anderson, and Finnegan were the last three to be demoted. In reality, my entire AAA pitching staff is capable of pitching in my ML bullpen, so these current 7 names may have a short leash.
Here's to a great 2020! Good luck everyone!
|
|
