One persons overview of some notable off-season transactions
Oct 16, 2017 22:10:41 GMT -8
johnw- ATL, Erick RockiesGM, and 3 more like this
Post by samtigers on Oct 16, 2017 22:10:41 GMT -8
Just a fun look at what are (in my opinion) the best transactions so far this offseason. And finished as of 10/20! Without further ado -
Best Trade for Now
Mets acquiring 3B Kyle Seager from Seattle for their 1st round pick (19th)
After a competitive season where they fell short, the Mets bolstered their offense by picking up upgrade at 3B at a huge discount after a down year for a single prospect (For reference - the 19th pick last year was SP Colton Hock, currently a 3.5 star prospect in the Giants system).
Possible best-case scenario for the Mets: Short term - Seager rebounds closer to his 2016 and 2017 form with 30+ doubles and homeruns and 4 WAR, helping the Mets take advantage of a weaker Washington team and overcoming challenges by the resurgent Braves. Long term - Seager ages well enough to stick at 3rd the remainder of his contract OR his bat is strong enough to hold a 1B/DH slot.
Possible worst-case scenario for the Mets: Short term - Last year becoming a trend as 3B remains a curse for the Mets. Long term - the new Kendrys Morales.
Honorable mentions:
White Sox acquiring SP Masahiro Tanaka
and SS Xander Bogaerts from Boston for SP Lucas Giolito, CF Charlie Tilson, MR Nate Jones, SP Dane Dunning and their 3rd round pick.
Colorado acquiring SP Justin Verlander from Seattle for SP Jesus Tinoco.
Best high risk/reward trade
Seattle acquiring SP Madison Bumgarner from the Reds for SP Drew Smyly, CL Edwin Diaz and RP Anthony DeSclafani.
Seattle didn't rest after a playoff run - and possibly their most impactful move was to land a boni-fide ace for a decent SP, a great closer (with a good/great one in-house as a replacement) and a fungible reliever. The risk? Bumgarner missing virtually the entire prior year to injury, and looking likely to miss all of spring training this year. Plus - has a $158 million contract extension kicking in after this year, a possible huge drain.
Possible best-case scenario for Seattle: Short term - Bumgarner comes back from injury, regains his form by pitching close to 200 innings of 5 WAR baseball and gives Seattle a chance to go deep in the playoffs. Long term - ages gracefully in a pitcher friendly stadium and exercises his opt-out, allowing Seattle to get a comp pick.
Possible worst-case scenario for Seattle: Short term - needs additional recovery time from his injury, isn't in the majors til June, and it's readily apparent by the end of the year that he will never be the same pitcher. Turns into Zack Grenkie by this time next year.
Possible blessing-in-disguise scenario for Seattle: This injury is career ending, losing some good pitchers to CIN in the process, however would be a huge windfall to budget.
Best Trade for the Future
Baltimore acquiring SP Riley Pint, SS Delvin Perez, SP Sandy Alcantara, RP Shane Greene, 3B Eugenio Suarez, and the 1st round pick (6th) from Detroit for 3B Manny Machado.
In a tough division in the AL East, Baltimore didn't stand pat after a .500 season but was willing to deal a legit superstar to reload. And reload they did with solid SP prospects, a good 3B replacement, a steady RP arm and, the cherry on the sundae, the #6 overall pick in the draft.
Possible best-case scenario for Baltimore: Short term - Suarez finds his bat, not making the fans forget about Machado but enough to put off any thoughts of upgrading for a few years; Alcantara capturing a rotation spot by years end, Greene by shaving a few #'s from his ERA and being a go-to in the pen, Pint and Perez proving their worth in the minors and a deep draft. Long term - The prospects becoming solid regulars, the pick proving to be a star - helping Baltimore turn into a contender.
Possible worst-case scenario for Baltimore: Short term - Suarez, Alcantara and Greene strugging, proving the hiccups last year were their actual talent level, the prospects showing that sometimes scouting DOES fail. Long term - the pick busting as they sometimes do, the entire crop of players failing to accomplishin a career what Machado can do in a season.
Honorable mention:
Seattle acquiring SS J P. Crawford and CF Nick Williams from the Phillies for RF Mitch Haniger, SP Brock Stewart, SP Kendall Graveman.
Best Trade fixing needs for both teams
The Rangers acquiring CF Mike Trout from the Angels for SS Nick Allen, SP Frank Lopez, SP Michael Kopech and CF Eric Jenkins.
After a rough season with a ton of salary on the books, the Angels moved their best player strengthening an already strong division rival. Their upside? Receiving two upper-level pitching prospects (in the ABL always in short supply), a strong OF and a good SS prospect, assisting them in a rebuild that may not need to last long. The Rangers got one elite player closer to a ring.
Possible best-case scenario for both teams: Short term - the Angels prospects make good strides in their development. Trout (possibly as DH?) becomes more like his real-life self again as the Rangers take the AL West again, being one of the top hitting teams in the league. Long term - Cy Young quality pitching from Lopez and Kopech, while Allen and Jenkins become solid regulars. Trout continues his resurgence, giving the Rangers another MVP quality season, giving them a decision whether to extend or get a comp pick after his contract expires.
Possible worst-case scenario for both teams: Short term for Texas - Trout continues to be hampered by minor injuries, pushing him below his level of production the last couple years with the Angels. Long term for Texas - Despite his decline, they extend at $30 million plus a year so they can watch him become a slightly cheaper Albert Pujols. Long term for the Angels (prospects - duh) - TINSSAAPP strikes as Lopez and Kopech regress, and Allen and Jenkins molder in the minors when they aren't proving themselves incapable of ML activity.
Honorable mention:
White Sox acquiring 3B Jurickson Profar from the Braves for 3B Rio Ruiz and RP Luke Jackson
Best Free Agent signing
Boston signing 3B Josh Donaldson to a 4 year, $100 million dollar contract
The free agent market didn't fill me with glee this year - a lot of overpriced outfielders with little pitching. However, Boston signaled a dramatic approach to the offseason by making a big move in obtaining Donaldson. At a staggering 27.2 WAR the last 4 years, Boston will hopefully get a couple years of pre-decline Donaldson at 3B, and one big year may encourage him to opt-out. Otherwise, Boston may need to eat salary for a couple years.
Best Free Agent bargain
Angels signing SP Gio Gonzalez to a 2 year, $39.9 million dollar contract.
OK, a bargain can be relative. The trends haven't been great the last couple seasons for Gonzalez, and the price looks steep for a rebuilding team. However, solid SP are few and far between in the ABL, and the Angels are making a decent gamble on a good half season for Gonzalez possibly netting a couple prospects from a contending team at the trade deadline. Also, with the second year a $17.9 million dollar option with a $5 million buyout, if he puts together a great season they have even more leverage for a good trade, or even a comp pick. And if he bombs, $22.9 million for a team in the midst of a rebuild is a decent sized chunk, although there are cheaper routes to take to take big steps you need to take big risks.
Honorable mention:
Detroit signing 1B Chris Carter to a one year, $1.4 million dollar contract
Trade most likely to be regretted
Tigers acquiring SP Barrett Astin from the Reds for SP Andrew Cashner, CF Christopher Barr, SP Matt Manning, SP Austin Becker, SS Wenceel Perez
(I hope I'm wrong on this one BTW)
The Tigers made some bold moves this offseason kicked off by attempting to bolster their starting rotation. Astin looks like a fine pitcher, however a critical look at the prospects, including the previous years first round pick by the Tigers, indicate that they could possibly have been dangled for a actual ace pitcher. However, Astin is youngish and cheapish, and fits well for the Tigers for the near future.
Possible best-case scenario for Detroit: Short term - Astin adjusts well to Comerica Park and leads the way to a contending year. Long term - contending years turns into contending years with budget increases and solid pitching thru Astin's arb years.
Possible worst-case scenario for Detroit: Short term - Astin's K rate fails to improve, dragging his performance way down. Long term - Astin soon becomes another fungible 5th starter. Bonus long term worse-case scenario - watching the Reds parley their impressive farm system to multiple pennants while the Tigers rot in the AL East. Hey, could be worse - they could be in the Central with the Indians.
Honorable mentions:
Eh, didn't really see any "bad" trades. I am just critical of myself apparently.
Free Agent signing most likely to be regretted.
He hasn't signed yet, but DJ LeMahieu. Wrong side of 30, playing in CO horribly inflated his numbers (look at those GIDP and the drop in doubles last year), and sure to receive a bloated contract.
Well, signing with Boston for 4 years, $85 million, heavily front loaded is a creative signing to say the least. I personally think he is smoke and mirrors due to CO, however if he can maintain his defense and hit some doubles in Fenway, at worse he might end up being a minor headache.
Dodgers signing 2B Kuan Xie to a 7 year, $210 million dollar contract.
Oh, those international free agents. The Dodgers have the money, but after 7 years I'm not confident they will be glad they spent it. Player opt-outs are only useful if the player thinks they can get more on the open market - which will be hard for a player starting his ML career at 30. Playing in LA will likely depress his offense, which combined with literally being a rookie may push him to the bottom half of 2B in the entire ABL.
Honorable mention:
Giants signing RP David Robertson to a 4 year, $40 million dollar contract.
Best Trade for Now
Mets acquiring 3B Kyle Seager from Seattle for their 1st round pick (19th)
After a competitive season where they fell short, the Mets bolstered their offense by picking up upgrade at 3B at a huge discount after a down year for a single prospect (For reference - the 19th pick last year was SP Colton Hock, currently a 3.5 star prospect in the Giants system).
Possible best-case scenario for the Mets: Short term - Seager rebounds closer to his 2016 and 2017 form with 30+ doubles and homeruns and 4 WAR, helping the Mets take advantage of a weaker Washington team and overcoming challenges by the resurgent Braves. Long term - Seager ages well enough to stick at 3rd the remainder of his contract OR his bat is strong enough to hold a 1B/DH slot.
Possible worst-case scenario for the Mets: Short term - Last year becoming a trend as 3B remains a curse for the Mets. Long term - the new Kendrys Morales.
Honorable mentions:
White Sox acquiring SP Masahiro Tanaka
and SS Xander Bogaerts from Boston for SP Lucas Giolito, CF Charlie Tilson, MR Nate Jones, SP Dane Dunning and their 3rd round pick.
Colorado acquiring SP Justin Verlander from Seattle for SP Jesus Tinoco.
Best high risk/reward trade
Seattle acquiring SP Madison Bumgarner from the Reds for SP Drew Smyly, CL Edwin Diaz and RP Anthony DeSclafani.
Seattle didn't rest after a playoff run - and possibly their most impactful move was to land a boni-fide ace for a decent SP, a great closer (with a good/great one in-house as a replacement) and a fungible reliever. The risk? Bumgarner missing virtually the entire prior year to injury, and looking likely to miss all of spring training this year. Plus - has a $158 million contract extension kicking in after this year, a possible huge drain.
Possible best-case scenario for Seattle: Short term - Bumgarner comes back from injury, regains his form by pitching close to 200 innings of 5 WAR baseball and gives Seattle a chance to go deep in the playoffs. Long term - ages gracefully in a pitcher friendly stadium and exercises his opt-out, allowing Seattle to get a comp pick.
Possible worst-case scenario for Seattle: Short term - needs additional recovery time from his injury, isn't in the majors til June, and it's readily apparent by the end of the year that he will never be the same pitcher. Turns into Zack Grenkie by this time next year.
Possible blessing-in-disguise scenario for Seattle: This injury is career ending, losing some good pitchers to CIN in the process, however would be a huge windfall to budget.
Best Trade for the Future
Baltimore acquiring SP Riley Pint, SS Delvin Perez, SP Sandy Alcantara, RP Shane Greene, 3B Eugenio Suarez, and the 1st round pick (6th) from Detroit for 3B Manny Machado.
In a tough division in the AL East, Baltimore didn't stand pat after a .500 season but was willing to deal a legit superstar to reload. And reload they did with solid SP prospects, a good 3B replacement, a steady RP arm and, the cherry on the sundae, the #6 overall pick in the draft.
Possible best-case scenario for Baltimore: Short term - Suarez finds his bat, not making the fans forget about Machado but enough to put off any thoughts of upgrading for a few years; Alcantara capturing a rotation spot by years end, Greene by shaving a few #'s from his ERA and being a go-to in the pen, Pint and Perez proving their worth in the minors and a deep draft. Long term - The prospects becoming solid regulars, the pick proving to be a star - helping Baltimore turn into a contender.
Possible worst-case scenario for Baltimore: Short term - Suarez, Alcantara and Greene strugging, proving the hiccups last year were their actual talent level, the prospects showing that sometimes scouting DOES fail. Long term - the pick busting as they sometimes do, the entire crop of players failing to accomplishin a career what Machado can do in a season.
Honorable mention:
Seattle acquiring SS J P. Crawford and CF Nick Williams from the Phillies for RF Mitch Haniger, SP Brock Stewart, SP Kendall Graveman.
Best Trade fixing needs for both teams
The Rangers acquiring CF Mike Trout from the Angels for SS Nick Allen, SP Frank Lopez, SP Michael Kopech and CF Eric Jenkins.
After a rough season with a ton of salary on the books, the Angels moved their best player strengthening an already strong division rival. Their upside? Receiving two upper-level pitching prospects (in the ABL always in short supply), a strong OF and a good SS prospect, assisting them in a rebuild that may not need to last long. The Rangers got one elite player closer to a ring.
Possible best-case scenario for both teams: Short term - the Angels prospects make good strides in their development. Trout (possibly as DH?) becomes more like his real-life self again as the Rangers take the AL West again, being one of the top hitting teams in the league. Long term - Cy Young quality pitching from Lopez and Kopech, while Allen and Jenkins become solid regulars. Trout continues his resurgence, giving the Rangers another MVP quality season, giving them a decision whether to extend or get a comp pick after his contract expires.
Possible worst-case scenario for both teams: Short term for Texas - Trout continues to be hampered by minor injuries, pushing him below his level of production the last couple years with the Angels. Long term for Texas - Despite his decline, they extend at $30 million plus a year so they can watch him become a slightly cheaper Albert Pujols. Long term for the Angels (prospects - duh) - TINSSAAPP strikes as Lopez and Kopech regress, and Allen and Jenkins molder in the minors when they aren't proving themselves incapable of ML activity.
Honorable mention:
White Sox acquiring 3B Jurickson Profar from the Braves for 3B Rio Ruiz and RP Luke Jackson
Best Free Agent signing
Boston signing 3B Josh Donaldson to a 4 year, $100 million dollar contract
The free agent market didn't fill me with glee this year - a lot of overpriced outfielders with little pitching. However, Boston signaled a dramatic approach to the offseason by making a big move in obtaining Donaldson. At a staggering 27.2 WAR the last 4 years, Boston will hopefully get a couple years of pre-decline Donaldson at 3B, and one big year may encourage him to opt-out. Otherwise, Boston may need to eat salary for a couple years.
Best Free Agent bargain
Angels signing SP Gio Gonzalez to a 2 year, $39.9 million dollar contract.
OK, a bargain can be relative. The trends haven't been great the last couple seasons for Gonzalez, and the price looks steep for a rebuilding team. However, solid SP are few and far between in the ABL, and the Angels are making a decent gamble on a good half season for Gonzalez possibly netting a couple prospects from a contending team at the trade deadline. Also, with the second year a $17.9 million dollar option with a $5 million buyout, if he puts together a great season they have even more leverage for a good trade, or even a comp pick. And if he bombs, $22.9 million for a team in the midst of a rebuild is a decent sized chunk, although there are cheaper routes to take to take big steps you need to take big risks.
Honorable mention:
Detroit signing 1B Chris Carter to a one year, $1.4 million dollar contract
Trade most likely to be regretted
Tigers acquiring SP Barrett Astin from the Reds for SP Andrew Cashner, CF Christopher Barr, SP Matt Manning, SP Austin Becker, SS Wenceel Perez
(I hope I'm wrong on this one BTW)
The Tigers made some bold moves this offseason kicked off by attempting to bolster their starting rotation. Astin looks like a fine pitcher, however a critical look at the prospects, including the previous years first round pick by the Tigers, indicate that they could possibly have been dangled for a actual ace pitcher. However, Astin is youngish and cheapish, and fits well for the Tigers for the near future.
Possible best-case scenario for Detroit: Short term - Astin adjusts well to Comerica Park and leads the way to a contending year. Long term - contending years turns into contending years with budget increases and solid pitching thru Astin's arb years.
Possible worst-case scenario for Detroit: Short term - Astin's K rate fails to improve, dragging his performance way down. Long term - Astin soon becomes another fungible 5th starter. Bonus long term worse-case scenario - watching the Reds parley their impressive farm system to multiple pennants while the Tigers rot in the AL East. Hey, could be worse - they could be in the Central with the Indians.
Honorable mentions:
Eh, didn't really see any "bad" trades. I am just critical of myself apparently.
Free Agent signing most likely to be regretted.
Dodgers signing 2B Kuan Xie to a 7 year, $210 million dollar contract.
Oh, those international free agents. The Dodgers have the money, but after 7 years I'm not confident they will be glad they spent it. Player opt-outs are only useful if the player thinks they can get more on the open market - which will be hard for a player starting his ML career at 30. Playing in LA will likely depress his offense, which combined with literally being a rookie may push him to the bottom half of 2B in the entire ABL.
Honorable mention:
Giants signing RP David Robertson to a 4 year, $40 million dollar contract.
